对于面前席卷好意思联储的芜乱局面，你只需显著少许：唐纳德·特朗普总统意图掌控这家历史上保抓独处的好意思国中央银行。仅此良友。

尽管脚下裸深入诸多犬牙相制的好意思联储关系叙事争相诱骗公众眼球，但通盘这些讨论最终齐总结到一个中枢事实：特朗普企图掌控该金融机构的有盘算权，却无法像对待其政府直领受辖的部门那样百战百胜地除名通盘东说念主员。由于空乏法律授权除名好意思联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，特朗普转而试图通过炒作该行华盛顿总部装修用度问题制造丑闻。

如今，特朗普偏激随从者——联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特（Bill Pulte）正以“典质贷款诓骗”为借口，大力宣扬要除名丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）。当作好意思联储战术制定者之一，库克将成为特朗普权利扩张的辞让。

简而言之：库克（Cook）是拜登提名的好意思联储理事，于2022年得到两党撑抓后说明任命，她是好意思联储理事会七位中枢有盘算者之一。要是特朗普能用一个更遵命我方意愿的东说念主取代她，他很快就能在理事会中占据多半上风。

周四，特朗普离他的标的更近了一步。

就在特朗普提名的好意思联储另一席位东说念主选斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在说明听证会上遭到民主党东说念主严苛质询的同期，王法部据报已凭据普尔特（Pulte）的举报，对库克（Cook）张开刑事探望。特朗普偏激盟友指控库克在就任好意思联储职务前在典质贷款文献上子虚——这一指控已遭其本东说念主否定。

值得着重的是，库克是特朗普自1月上任以来指控涉嫌典质贷款诓骗的第三位政事敌手。前两位辨别是纽约州总稽查长利蒂希娅·詹姆斯（其拿起的民事诉讼认定特朗普多年间通过虚报房地产财富获取优惠利率组成诓骗）以及加利福尼亚州民主党盘考员亚当·希夫。（詹姆斯与希夫均否定关系指控，且两东说念主均未被告状。）

普尔特（Pulte）本周早些时辰向福克斯交易频说念走漏："典质贷款诓骗是咱们使命的重中之重。"周四，他在CNBC节目中再次强调这一不雅点，称"公职东说念主员不应免于审查"。

但当《财经论坛》节目主抓东说念主安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金向普尔特询查，是否会探望好意思联社和《纽约时报》对于得克萨斯州总稽查长、好意思国盘考院共和党候选东说念主肯·帕克斯顿在典质贷款苦求中将三处不临幸产列为主要住所的报说念时，普尔特聘用了掩盖。

“除非是讼师或刑事转介文献已公开的内容，不然我不会置评。”他补充说念：“要是事情被公开，或者咱们决定将其公开，届时我会进行讨论。”

此外，据ProPublica报说念，至少有三位特朗普内阁成员在典质贷款文献中将多处房产列为“主要”住所。

再次重申：这一切与典质贷款诓骗无关，其中枢在于掌控好意思联储。

为何此事至关紧迫

好意思联储并非那种跟着政府更替就鬈曲态度的平日机构。依据法律与传统，它长久保抓独处且严格无党派态度。现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对党派政事极为摒除，致使会在公开口头捎带紫色领带，以幸免任何走漏倾向共和党（红色）或民主党（蓝色）的嫌疑。

该银行之是以领有非凡地位，是因为其承担着为国度金融体系制定基准利率的中枢职能。

利率如同汽车的油门和刹车踏板：通过降息（正如特朗普致力主张的那样），你不错轻踩油门让经济加快；而当经济过热时（正如咱们在2022年6月达到顶峰的后疫情通胀怒潮中亲历的那样），你也不错通过加息来放缓节拍。

莫得哪位总统会主动聘用高利率战术——尽管放缓经济增速有助于扼制通胀，但也会扼制交易增长，导致招聘停滞致使激勉裁人。总统们当然但愿我方的任期能与经济富贵和股市高潮挂钩。

但无需远不雅便可显著，从永恒来看，这将成为一个问题。

以土耳其为例，该国总统抓有额外规且不对逻辑的不雅点，以为缩短利率不错扼制通货扩张，这种不雅点导致物价多年抓续飙升，并激勉该国货币崩溃。

好意思国虽从未经验过土耳其级别的危急，但咱们从尼克松政府工夫就已有前车之鉴。

1970年，尼克松任命其好友兼参谋人**阿瑟·伯恩斯**（Arthur Burns）担任好意思联储主席。伯恩斯随后现实宽松货币战术，助总统在1972年胜仗连任。（历史学家对尼克松是否径直施压伯恩斯存在争议，但无可争议的效力是：伯恩斯的举措激勉了一场抓续10年、经验两次经济阑珊才得以驱逐的恶性通胀周期。）

特朗普在确保央行里面至心度方面绝不冒险。周四的提名听证会上，白宫首席经济参谋人米伦（Miran）终止径直声明特朗普输掉了2020年大选。当被追问好意思联储独处性问题时——米伦客岁曾嘲讽这一主张是落伍的“夏炉冬扇”，同期主张通过矫正赋予总统对该机构更大影响力——他仅模糊地走漏“这对经济和金融商场的邃密运行至关紧迫”，未作出更多本体性酬金。

马萨诸塞州盘考员、委员会民主党首席成员伊丽莎白·沃伦走漏："米兰博士，你已明确走漏会按照唐纳德·特朗普的意愿行事或发言。这对政事仆从或者无妨，但此举将严重龙套好意思联储的独处性，并导致好意思国度庭生存资本大幅攀升。"

要津点在于：特朗普政府试图通过额外规门径除名库克，并任命曾品评好意思联储独处性的萧疏经济学家米兰，以此争夺好意思联储已毕权，此举或者能喜悦总统的短期需求。当作特朗普疼爱的胜仗主张，股市致使可能因宽松货币战术的承诺而得到提振。但是，若好意思联储无法被信托以保护好意思国东说念主免受恶性通胀或大领域休闲的影响，险些不错细则经济将以灾祸结局结束。

If there is just one thing you need to know about the chaos engulfing the Federal Reserve, its this: President Donald Trump wants to control the historically independent US central bank. Thats it.

There is a rash of more complicated Fed narratives competing for your attention, but every single one goes back to the reality that Trump wants to call the shots at the bank, and he cant just march in and fire everyone there the way he has in departments his administration directly oversees. Lacking the legal authority to fire the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, Trump tried to spin up a scandal over the renovation costs at the banks DC headquarters.

Now, Trump and his mini-me Bill Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, are crowing about mortgage fraud as a pretext to fire Lisa Cook, one of the Fed policymakers who would stand in the way of Trumps power grab.

In short: Cook, a Biden appointee confirmed with bipartisan support in 2022, is one of seven key policymakers on the Feds Board of Governors. If Trump can replace her with someone more amenable to his whims, he could soon have a majority of the board in his corner.

On Thursday, Trump got closer to his goal.

At the same time that Stephen Miran , Trumps pick to fill a separate Fed seat was getting grilled by Democrats during a confirmation hearing, the Justice Department reportedly launched a criminal investigation into Cook, acting on a referral from Pulte. Trump and his allies have accused Cook of lying on mortgage documents prior to her term at the Fed an allegation she has denied.

Its worth noting here that Cook is the third perceived political enemy that Trump has accused of mortgage fraud since he took office in January. The others include New York Attorney General Letitia James the prosecutor whose civil suit against Trump found him liable for a yearslong fraud in which he lied about real estate assets to receive more favorable rates and California Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff . (James and Schiff have also denied the allegations, and neither has been charged.)

Mortgage fraud is a huge priority of ours, Pulte told Fox Business earlier this week. On Thursday, he reiterated the point on CNBC, saying public officials shouldnt be exempt from scrutiny.

But when Squawk Box host Andrew Ross Sorkin asked Pulte whether hed be looking into reports from the AP and the New York Times that Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and Republican candidate for the US Senate, has claimed three separate homes as his primary residence on mortgage applications, Pulte ran for cover.

Unless its something thats been made public by lawyersor in criminal referrals, Im not going to comment. He added: If things are made publicor we decide to make them public, then I will talk about it.

And, according to ProPublica, at least three Trump Cabinet members have also listed more than one property as their primary residence in mortgage documents.

Once again: None of this is about mortgage fraud. It is about controlling the Fed.

Why it matters

The Fed isnt just another government agency that switches polarities with every new administration. It is, by law and tradition, independent and stridently nonpartisan. The current chair, Jerome Powell, is so allergic to partisan politics he wears a purple tie in public appearances to avoid even the suggestion of a preference for red or blue.

The reason for the banks special status has to do with its central function of setting the benchmark interest rates for the nations financial system.

Interest rates are like gas and brake pedals on a car: You can tap the gas and get the economy moving a bit faster by cutting rates (as Trump desperately wants), or you can raise interest rates to slow things down when the economy runs too hot (as we all experienced in the post-Covid inflationary fever that peaked in June 2022.)

No president would willingly choose high interest rates slowing the economy down helps control inflation, but it also crimps business growth, stalling hiring or even spurring layoffs. Naturally, presidents want their terms to be associated with a booming economy and stock market.

But you dont need to look far to see how, long-term, thats a problem.

Consider Turkey, where the presidents unconventional, illogical view that lower interest rates would tame inflation has led to a yearslong price spiral and the collapse of the countrys currency.

The United States has never come close to a Turkey-level crisis, but weve got our own cautionary tale from the Nixon administration.

In 1970, Nixon appointed a friend and adviser, Arthur Burns, to be his Fed chair. Burns went on to loosen monetary policy and help the president secure re-election in 72. (Historians debate how directly Nixon pressured Burns to do so, but whats not debatable is the result: Burns actions triggered a painful inflationary cycle that took 10 years, and two recessions, to break.)

Trump isnt taking any risks when it comes to securing loyalty within the central bank. During a confirmation hearing Thursday, Miran, the top economic adviser at the White House, refused to state outright that Trump lost the 2020 election. When grilled about Fed independence which Miran last year derided as an outdated shibboleth while advocating for changes that would give the president more sway over the agency Miran offered little more than lip service, stating that it is critical to the well functioning of the economy and financial markets.

Dr. Miran, you have made clear that you will do or say whatever Donald Trump wants, said Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the committees Democratic ranking member. That may be an ok place for political servants, but it takes an ax to Fed independence and will make life far more expensive for American families.

Bottom line: The Trump administrations attempts to wrest control of the Fed by firing Cook without due process and installing Miran万博manbext网站登录app娱乐, the rare economist whos criticized Fed independence could satisfy the presidents short-term needs. The stock market, Trumps favored barometer of success, may even enjoy a boost from the promise of looser monetary policy. However, its all but guaranteed to end badly for the economy if the Fed cant be trusted to protect Americans from runaway inflation or mass unemployment.